Sensitivity Analysis of HDM4 Tool Using a Case Study

Abstract

Pavements which are left to deteriorate without timely maintenance treatment are likely to require major rehabilitation and reconstruction much sooner than those which are properly maintained. In developing countries like India, where the traffic growth and axle loading is growing at logarithmic scale, deterioration of highways is very fast. The objective of this study is to find the sensitivity of using un-calibrated and calibrated inbuilt distress models of HDM-4 Tool using the above said case study. The sensitivity has been done using HDM-4 software for project analysis. The HDM-4 tool provides the deterministic approach in data input and processing also utilizes data on existing road condition, traffic volume and crust composition to predict road deterioration as per the road conditions in terms of any one variable such as International Roughness Index (IRI). HDM-4 simulates the best alternative that need to be applied based on Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) which consist Total Transportation Cost (TTC), Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC), roughness pattern. After performing normal project analysis and selecting the best fit alternative for the section, calibration factor for crack initiation and crack progression are changed one by one and corresponding Economic Internal Rate of Return, Total Transportation cost, Average Vehicle Operating Cost, Average Travel Time Cost, Average Road User Cost, Cracking pattens, roughness patterns are compared. A road network economic evaluation is the most challenging use of the model, but the effort is well justified due to the potential savings on transportation costs achieved by comparing various alternatives. This thesis presents the concept for using calibrated models of HDM-4 for analysis, reviews the applied methodology, input requirements and also shows future directions in order to apply HDM- 4 effectively. The methodology described here in attempts to take advantage of all the capabilities of HDM-4, deal with the limitations of HDM-4, and produce usable results. It is important that the selected road works per road class be feasible from a purely technical point of view to produce realistic results.