Solar Irradiance Forecasting and Its Role In Planning Of Microgrid

Abstract

With the rising participation of renewable energy sources (REs) like solar, wind and biomass in the power generation, it is important to analyze and solve the problems related to its integration with the grid; especially the uncertain nature of these sources. Focusing on the uncertainty in solar power, the solar irradiance is considered as a major issue. The accurate forecasting of solar irradiance depends on various uncertain parameters like time of day, relative temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and atmospheric pressure. All these parameters play an important role in calculating the solar power output of PV panel. Thus, in this dissertation, an effort has been made to perform the short term forecasting of solar irradiance using high dimensional fuzzy logic based system and statistical multi-linear regression approach, depending upon the real time measured data of above mentioned parameters using pyranometer, anemometer and barometer devices. Based on the simultaneous consideration of these five variables, the solar irradiance is forecasted at a particular location in India and the results are compared with the real time measured value of solar irradiance. The error analysis of the high dimensional fuzzy logic based proposed system shows the root mean square error (RMSE) of 10.011 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.703%, while comparing with real time data. The same results are found to be better when compared with the results obtained using statistical multilinear regression approach. In addition, a case study has been performed for planning and designing of a solar based microgrid at Thapar Institute of Engineering and Technology, Patiala, India using the HOMER Pro software. The aim of the case study is to analyze the application of HOMER Pro software in planning of a solar based microgrid system considering solar irradiance as its key component.